Cumulative Growth of a $10,000 Investment in Stock Advisor Calculated by Time-Weighted Return. Twitter. The one investment that's never let long-term investors down. One of the most important of these was the decision by Palmetto GBA to make Guardant360 the first (and, so far, only) liquid biopsy to receive broad coverage for use in most types of advanced solid tumors. Tag: Guardant Health Inc. Companies. As the company’s long-term prospects in early cancer detection and the precision-oncology outweigh the near-term risks from COVID-19, Guardant is a compelling ‘Buy’ for us. Sources: The Author; Data from Seeking Alpha and the Author Estimates. The lukewarm growth forecasts seen in consensus revenue and the … However, as the coronavirus cases showed signs of easing in August following the surge in early summer, a slight recovery has begun in Q3 2020. By comparison, the company's total revenue last year was $214.4 million. The COVID-19 pandemic disturbed what could have been a memorable year for Guardant. Investment Thesis. The consensus estimate for 2020 reflects the gloomy outlook. Founded in 1993 by brothers Tom and David Gardner, The Motley Fool helps millions of people attain financial freedom through our website, podcasts, books, newspaper column, radio show, and premium investing services. Stocks. LUNAR-2 has a much larger addressable market of more than $30 billion. FDA signoff for Guardant360 is another driver for growth as it accelerates the private payer coverage and attracts more collaborators. After back-to-back declines sequentially, the total test volumes in Q3 2020 have jumped ~21.3% from the previous quarter. The NTM EV/Sales is also trading at a discount compared to historicals. LUNAR-2 could enable the detection of cancer at early stages. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Guardant recorded the highest ever quarterly gross margins in Q3 2020. Assuming ~37.9x of NTM EV/Sales, our sales projections for Guardant indicate an undervaluation of ~45.0 – 49.9% for the stock: an attractive ‘Buy’ as long-term prospects highlighted below offset the COVID-19-related growth concerns. With our more upbeat sales forecasts, the 2019 average in NTM EV/Sales indicates a sharp premium. On an LTM (last twelve-month) basis, the company’s top-line had more than doubled compared to the year-ago period for four consecutive quarters through Q1 2020 (first quarter of 2020). The deceleration compared to ~22.5% YoY growth in Q3 2020 mirrors the management comments. Yet, the vaccine hopes could reverse the pandemic-related slowdown. Assuming a faster pickup in test volumes than suggested by the consensus, we project ~42.1 – 47.2% YoY growth in LTM revenue for the company, leading to ~$385.5 – ~$399.3 million in revenue. Open in app; Sign up. Guardant Health delivered these tremendous gains the old-fashioned way. The Ascent is The Motley Fool's new personal finance brand devoted to helping you live a richer life. The initial investment has delivered a return of over 360% in less than 20 months. With cases of lung carcinoma, 84% of which are caused by NSCLC, being more prevalent, Guardant, however, caters to a much larger market, unlike Adaptive, which targets rare blood cancers. Guardant360 came out on top. Indicating ~32.9% YoY growth, ~$284.9 million of consensus revenue forecast for 2020 implies ~21.6% YoY growth for Q4 2020. Guardant Health thinks that its Guardant360 liquid biopsy has a $6 billion addressable annual market in the U.S. alone. Via SeekingAlpha.com, Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains (NASDAQ:GH), Rouhani Says Iran Would Rejoin Nuclear Deal "Within An Hour" Of US Signing On, Federal Reserve’s final meeting of 2020: four things to watch, Electronic Arts lines up counter-offer for Codemasters. 1. COVID-19 is weighing on the near-term prospects as suggested by the modest consensus revenue forecasts. Last year, ... Guardant Health Inc. (NASDAQ:GH), Redwood City, Calif. Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Md. It's usually because there's a perception that the companies are on to something big. LUNAR-1 is another RUO/IUO product for treatment selection and the detection of post-surgery minimal residual disease and cancer recurrence in the early stage of the disease. I think that this stock has the kind of X factor that every investor should like. Guardant Health held its initial public offering (IPO) in October 2018. Guardant Health thinks that its Guardant360 liquid biopsy has a $6 billion addressable annual market in the U.S. alone. The most promising test, under development seeking FDA approval and CMS coverage, the LUNAR-2 assay targets early cancer detection in asymptomatic and high-risk individuals. The lukewarm growth forecasts seen in consensus revenue and the … With lung cancer being the second most prevalent and the most frequent cause for cancer-related deaths in the U.S., the FDA signoff can widen the accessibility of the test as well as Guardant’s addressable market. If you enjoyed this article and wish to receive updates on my latest research, click “Follow” next to my name at the top. The COVID-19 case counts are rising in record numbers in the U.S., and according to health experts, the worst has yet to come as winter approaches. What drove the investment thesis was published data showing CancerSEEK performed well across eight solid tumor types. Log in; Seeking Alpha. As investors, we're taught one simple truth: Nothing is guaranteed. Finance. Cumulative Growth of a $10,000 Investment in Stock Advisor, If You Invested $10,000 in Guardant Health's IPO, This Is How Much Money You'd Have Now @themotleyfool #stocks $GH, reported impressive results in February 2019, Why Guardant Health Tumbled by Over 10% on Monday. The ongoing clinical trials will only accelerate the rising cash burn. Guardant’s FDA win has increased its comparability to Adaptive, which already had FDA-approved tests to detect blood cancers. window.SA = {"App":{"name":"SA","fullName":"Seeking Alpha","type":"regular","host":"https://seekingalpha.com","financeApiHost":"https://finance.api.seekingalpha.com","emailHost":"https://email.seekingalpha.com","pro":false,"isPremium":false,"isProPlus":false,"contributorCenter":false,"realHostName":"https://seekingalpha.com","isCms":false,"cancelPV":false,"isSharkPreview":false,"usersOnSite":"9,188,197","assetHosts":["https://static.seekingalpha.com","https://static1.seekingalpha.com","https://static2.seekingalpha.com","https://static3.seekingalpha.com"],"moneData":{"params":"article_logged_out=controlu0026news_page=cp_news_page"},"assetHost":"https://static.seekingalpha.com","userEchoHost":"https://feedback.seekingalpha.com","unbounceHost":"https://subscriptions.seekingalpha.com","env":{"dev":false,"staging":false,"production":true,"test":false},"gaAccountId":"UA-142576245-1","pianoAccountId":"CWJjPp7cpu","comscoreAccountId":8500672,"fbAppId":"2459764930747368","googleClientId":"853676697728-j4qpq4pfialt14ibl9ppa3tk37m6kc9e.apps.googleusercontent.com","twitterAccountName":"SeekingAlpha","rollbarToken":"5edf110be2fc4cecb32637fc421111e2","perimeterXAppId":"PXxgCxM9By","embedlyKey":"a6da93fdfc49472099ce63260954716b","mp":false,"chat":{"host":"https://rc.seekingalpha.com"},"oneSignalAppId":"32a623ea-4435-442f-a7e1-0ef070124c32","gptHeaderTest":null,"allowAdBlockPopup":null},"pageConfig":{"Refresher":{"active":false},"Data":{"article":{"id":4390753,"title":"Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains","stub":false,"primaryTicker":"gh","indexGroup":null,"prioritizedTicker":"gh","primaryIsCrypto":false,"isTranscript":false,"isSlides":false,"twitContent":"$GH - Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains. UBS SECURITIES LLC bought a fresh place in Twitter Inc. (NYSE:TWTR). I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. User Sign In. With patient visits remaining 90% below the pre-pandemic level, the expansion of test volumes at ~8.0% YoY in Q3 2020 stands far below the ~76.6% YoY growth in 2019. Thrive Earlier Detection Corp., Cambridge, Mass. The key to this success was the skyrocketing demand for Guardant Health's two liquid biopsy products, Guardant360 and GuardantOMNI. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains. Companies . Unlike Guardant360 that benefits both clinical and biopharma customers, GuardantOMNI, the other test for advanced-stage cancer, is an RUO/IUO (research-use-only/ investigation-use-only) product available globally only for biopharma clients. 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